Power Ratings: NFL 2016 Season Review

Way back at the beginning of the year on September 1st, I posted about a method using the highly efficient preseason win total markets to set a baseline for NFL Power Ratings. I wanted to experiment using the expected win total at the end of the season as the determining factor for moving power ratings. I thought if I could move the ratings week to week based on where a team would end up, rather than what they did the week prior, it would lead to more accurate movements and ratings throughout the league. This method prevented me from installing personal bias into the ratings and exceeded my greatest expectations.

After the regular season, here are how my Power Ratings record ended up:

Top Bets (advantages of 3 points or more) in 2016 went 39-24-1 for a winning percentage of 62% against the spread. 

Ratings overall went 112-101-5 for a winning percentage of 53% against the spread.

While the sample size is still somewhat small, this method made me feel very confident on a week to week basis. This is certainly a method I will revisit for next season.

I appreciate all followers who visited my website on a week to week basis throughout the NFL season. I encourage all to continue to follow throughout the upcoming tennis season and get involved with my weekly tennis tournament wagers.

Happy New Year!

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Power Ratings: NFL Week 16

At the beginning of the season when I began doing this ratings, I said it was important to adjust them from week to week to stay in lane with where things would likely end up at the end of the season. The concept of the ratings was very simple, if you know where the teams will finish, the value of a win can determine the point spread. With just two weeks to go in the season, the results have spoke for themselves, with top bets hitting over 64% after a 1-2 tally last week.

What is important to note now that the end of the season is here is  that it is quite easy to make an accurate prediction on where teams will finish, and bet accordingly with confidence. Of course, there are cases where motivation and starting players factor into the equation, but, for the most part throughout the league with so many teams fighting for final playoff spots, this week should allow everyone betting the ratings to dial the risk up a bit, and take bigger shots with some of these bets. Not to much surprise, there are more top bets this week than any other during the season.

I have two bets circled this week…
Both of these favourites will win by double digits
Get both bets and full write-ups here

To date, my power ratings are 102-94-5 (52%) ATS overall. Top Bets (advantages of 3.5 points or more) are 36-20-1 (64%) ATS. This week there are SEVEN teams with an advantage of more than a field goal. They are, NY Giants, Tennessee, New England, Oakland, Seattle, Los Angeles and Kansas City

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Power Ratings: NFL Week 15

The results of the Power Ratings last week we are good as could be expected. There were 3 Top Bets, all of which covered the spread. After a slight bump in the road to end November, things have righted themselves nicely, with Top Bets going on a 6-1 run and the ratings overall showing back to back winning weeks in December.

There is a NFL total this Sunday which is off by 5 points

I have singled it out and bet it big

This will be NFL Double Bet winner 11 of 12

Get my bet and full write-up here

To date, my power ratings are 95-87-5 (53%) ATS overall. Top Bets (advantages of 3.5 points or more) are 35-18-1 (66%) ATS. This week there are THREE teams with an advantage of more than a field goal. They are, Houston, Buffalo and Dallas.

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Power Ratings: NFL Week 13

My Top Bets are coming off the first downswing of the season after going 2-4 last week. Ratings as a whole are down as well coming off their second losing week at 6-9. An unfortunate trend continued as well last week as 6 games were decided by less than a field goal, including 4 by half a point of less, two of which were top bets. That is now 15 games in the past 2 weeks which have lost by less than a field goal. There was some debate that Top Bets could not have gone worse than 2-2-2 for anyone who played the games after Wednesday, and while that may be true, I am always grading these bets based on when I post the Power Ratings each week, for better or for worse. Again, much like last week, I consider it to be a very good sign that so many of these games are close to the spreads I put out as that means the ratings are dialed in and the big weeks will come just like they did early in the season.

Clients have cashed in on 9 of my last 10 Double Bets

This week I am stepping it up with a Triple Bet on Sunday

Get my big bet this Sunday with full write-up here

To date, my power ratings are 81-76-5 (52%) ATS overall. Top Bets (advantages of 3.5 points or more) are 28-17-1 (62%) ATS. This week there are FOUR teams with an advantage of more than a field goal. They are, Detroit, Oakland, Washington and Seattle.

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Power Ratings: NFL Week 12

Well, the good news is that the Top Bet on Seattle last week came through and extended the incredible Top Bet run this season. The bad news is for the rest of the ratings, it was a dismal week going 5-9 (36%) ATS. But, it is important to remember that the overall plays are not necessarily a prediction guide like the Top Bets are, but rather a judge of the league as a whole to isolate those top bets. With that in mind, it is a positive to know that overall on the year the record is up and in bad weeks like last week, much was decided on the final plays of the game. 7 of the 9 losses last week were by 2.5 points or less and lost due to a score within the final 2 minutes. While there is no denying the overall down week, I can stay confident knowing that my adjustments to teams in comparison to the market are just off in the slightest. In a week like this where there are 6 Top Bets, I can have very high expectations.

Clients have been treated to NINE straight Double Bet winners

This Sunday I have Double Bet winner number ten in a row

Click here to get the bet with a full write-up

To date, my power ratings are 75-67-5 (53%) ATS overall. Top Bets (advantages of 3.5 points or more) are 26-13-1 (67%) ATS. This week there are SIX teams with advantages of more than a field goal. They are, Houston, Chicago, Baltimore, Miami, NY Giants and Oakland.

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Power Ratings: NFL Week 11

It was a winning week for my power ratings going 7-6 overall in Week 10, but it was the finish that was disappointing. Heading into the late slate of games, the record on the week was at 6-1 ATS and a big bounce back week was in the cards, only to crash down in flames. A Top Bet win on Baltimore left Minnesota for the 2-0 sweep, but unfortunately the Vikings fell short splitting Top Bets 1-1 for the week.

A betting note to pass along for this week.

The Texans Raiders game may be one of the most difficult games either team has ever taken part in. Contrary to the belief of many, the game this week is in Mexico City which is NOT a beach or in the middle of a flat desert. There is also a significant travel distance from both Houston and Oakland to Mexico City. Thinking that there may be a decent amount of Houston fans because the “close proximity to the border” is ridiculous. But, aside from a week full of people humiliating themselves on TV, Radio and Social Media with poor basic geography knowledge, the biggest factor that is getting no attention in this game is the altitude. This will be the first time any of these players have competed in conditions like these in their life. Mexico City sits 2,250 meters above sea level. To put that in perspective, Denver, long known to be the most difficult place to play in the NFL sits at just 1,600 meters above sea level, almost 30% LOWER than Mexico City. Many of the highest level soccer players, who have world class cardio struggle with the conditions in Mexico City, just imagine how 300 pound linemen will hold up…

The harsh playing conditions of Estadio Azteca give Mexican home teams a massive playing advantage in international competitions such as Copa Libertadores, Sudamericana and CONCACAF Qualifiers/Champions League. One way that opposing teams from different countries combat the difficult conditions is by flying in as soon before gametime as possible, usually late the night before or early in the morning in attempt to reduce the affect on the body. This is an approach the Raiders are taking, scheduled to land late Sunday Night, less than 24 hours before kickoff. They have also begun taking approaches in practice using oxygen restricting masks. Houston on the other hand are taking it “just like a normal road trip”. In an interview, head coach Bill O’Brien said the only difference was “the passport thing” in a strange attempt to describe international customs.

From a betting perspective, it is hard to weigh this angle into the game giving either team an advantage on the point spread. I don’t think that the Texans realize how much the altitude will affect them, nor do they realize it exists…yet. Oakland on the other hand is doing something no other NFL team has ever done arriving less than 24 hours before kickoff and could easily have their rhythm upset.

For me, the one angle these extreme conditions presents itself well for is Longest Field Goal Over 43.5 yards. Novak and Janikowski are no strangers to kicking long field goals, both holding season longs greater than 53 yards, a full 10 yards greater than this price. The long grass in Estadio Azteca leads to a slower paced game and with the altitude changing the ball flight of passes, we could see drives stalled on a frequent basis. I would not be shocked to see an attempt in this game for the all time NFL field goal record, as these conditions add significant range to both of these kickers legs. Anything 60 or less should be well in range in the thin air. If you go back 11 years ago when Arizona and San Francisco played in Mexico City, there were 6 field goals kicked, 3 of which were of distance to cash this same prop. A field goal over 43.5 yards may be one of the better prop bets available all season long.

To date, my power ratings are 70-58-5 (55%) ATS overall. Top Bets (advantages of 3.5 points or more) are 25-13-1 (66%) ATS. This week there is only one team with an advantage of more than a field goal, and it is Seattle.

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Power Ratings: NFL Week 10

It was another great week last week for top bets going 2-0-1 ATS. Unfortunately, the rest of the ratings did not do as well as Week 9 turned out to be just the second losing week of the season going 5-6-1 ATS overall. Once again heading into this week I am down on more teams in the league than I am up. Entering Week 10 I have downgraded 15 teams and upgraded just 9. A total of 8 teams remain at the same point they started the season.

What jumps out at me most from my ratings is the expected downswing they have projected for the AFC West. Personally speaking, I think the three of the four teams in the AFC West are among the most over rated teams in the league (Oakland, Denver, Kansas City). My ratings are now beginning to confirm the same thing, with all four teams projected between 8.5 and 9.5 wins. Considering that Oakland has 7, Kansas City and Denver have 6, these three teams are all projected to go on a downswing ahead. San Diego, who entered the season with a very high projection thanks in part to the Pythagorean Expectation, currently has 4, but I still have projected to win 8.5. While the rest of the world is focused on the top three teams in the division, my ratings would suggest to keep an eye on San Diego to make some noise.

To date, my power ratings are 63-52-5 (55%) ATS overall. Top bets (advantages of 3.5 points or more) are 24-12-1 (67%) ATS. This week there are two teams with advantages of more than a field goal, they are Baltimore and Minnesota.

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