Power Ratings: NFL Week 13

My Top Bets are coming off the first downswing of the season after going 2-4 last week. Ratings as a whole are down as well coming off their second losing week at 6-9. An unfortunate trend continued as well last week as 6 games were decided by less than a field goal, including 4 by half a point of less, two of which were top bets. That is now 15 games in the past 2 weeks which have lost by less than a field goal. There was some debate that Top Bets could not have gone worse than 2-2-2 for anyone who played the games after Wednesday, and while that may be true, I am always grading these bets based on when I post the Power Ratings each week, for better or for worse. Again, much like last week, I consider it to be a very good sign that so many of these games are close to the spreads I put out as that means the ratings are dialed in and the big weeks will come just like they did early in the season.

Clients have cashed in on 9 of my last 10 Double Bets

This week I am stepping it up with a Triple Bet on Sunday

Get my big bet this Sunday with full write-up here

To date, my power ratings are 81-76-5 (52%) ATS overall. Top Bets (advantages of 3.5 points or more) are 28-17-1 (62%) ATS. This week there are FOUR teams with an advantage of more than a field goal. They are, Detroit, Oakland, Washington and Seattle.



Power Ratings: NFL Week 12

Well, the good news is that the Top Bet on Seattle last week came through and extended the incredible Top Bet run this season. The bad news is for the rest of the ratings, it was a dismal week going 5-9 (36%) ATS. But, it is important to remember that the overall plays are not necessarily a prediction guide like the Top Bets are, but rather a judge of the league as a whole to isolate those top bets. With that in mind, it is a positive to know that overall on the year the record is up and in bad weeks like last week, much was decided on the final plays of the game. 7 of the 9 losses last week were by 2.5 points or less and lost due to a score within the final 2 minutes. While there is no denying the overall down week, I can stay confident knowing that my adjustments to teams in comparison to the market are just off in the slightest. In a week like this where there are 6 Top Bets, I can have very high expectations.

Clients have been treated to NINE straight Double Bet winners

This Sunday I have Double Bet winner number ten in a row

Click here to get the bet with a full write-up

To date, my power ratings are 75-67-5 (53%) ATS overall. Top Bets (advantages of 3.5 points or more) are 26-13-1 (67%) ATS. This week there are SIX teams with advantages of more than a field goal. They are, Houston, Chicago, Baltimore, Miami, NY Giants and Oakland.


Power Ratings: NFL Week 11

It was a winning week for my power ratings going 7-6 overall in Week 10, but it was the finish that was disappointing. Heading into the late slate of games, the record on the week was at 6-1 ATS and a big bounce back week was in the cards, only to crash down in flames. A Top Bet win on Baltimore left Minnesota for the 2-0 sweep, but unfortunately the Vikings fell short splitting Top Bets 1-1 for the week.

A betting note to pass along for this week.

The Texans Raiders game may be one of the most difficult games either team has ever taken part in. Contrary to the belief of many, the game this week is in Mexico City which is NOT a beach or in the middle of a flat desert. There is also a significant travel distance from both Houston and Oakland to Mexico City. Thinking that there may be a decent amount of Houston fans because the “close proximity to the border” is ridiculous. But, aside from a week full of people humiliating themselves on TV, Radio and Social Media with poor basic geography knowledge, the biggest factor that is getting no attention in this game is the altitude. This will be the first time any of these players have competed in conditions like these in their life. Mexico City sits 2,250 meters above sea level. To put that in perspective, Denver, long known to be the most difficult place to play in the NFL sits at just 1,600 meters above sea level, almost 30% LOWER than Mexico City. Many of the highest level soccer players, who have world class cardio struggle with the conditions in Mexico City, just imagine how 300 pound linemen will hold up…

The harsh playing conditions of Estadio Azteca give Mexican home teams a massive playing advantage in international competitions such as Copa Libertadores, Sudamericana and CONCACAF Qualifiers/Champions League. One way that opposing teams from different countries combat the difficult conditions is by flying in as soon before gametime as possible, usually late the night before or early in the morning in attempt to reduce the affect on the body. This is an approach the Raiders are taking, scheduled to land late Sunday Night, less than 24 hours before kickoff. They have also begun taking approaches in practice using oxygen restricting masks. Houston on the other hand are taking it “just like a normal road trip”. In an interview, head coach Bill O’Brien said the only difference was “the passport thing” in a strange attempt to describe international customs.

From a betting perspective, it is hard to weigh this angle into the game giving either team an advantage on the point spread. I don’t think that the Texans realize how much the altitude will affect them, nor do they realize it exists…yet. Oakland on the other hand is doing something no other NFL team has ever done arriving less than 24 hours before kickoff and could easily have their rhythm upset.

For me, the one angle these extreme conditions presents itself well for is Longest Field Goal Over 43.5 yards. Novak and Janikowski are no strangers to kicking long field goals, both holding season longs greater than 53 yards, a full 10 yards greater than this price. The long grass in Estadio Azteca leads to a slower paced game and with the altitude changing the ball flight of passes, we could see drives stalled on a frequent basis. I would not be shocked to see an attempt in this game for the all time NFL field goal record, as these conditions add significant range to both of these kickers legs. Anything 60 or less should be well in range in the thin air. If you go back 11 years ago when Arizona and San Francisco played in Mexico City, there were 6 field goals kicked, 3 of which were of distance to cash this same prop. A field goal over 43.5 yards may be one of the better prop bets available all season long.

To date, my power ratings are 70-58-5 (55%) ATS overall. Top Bets (advantages of 3.5 points or more) are 25-13-1 (66%) ATS. This week there is only one team with an advantage of more than a field goal, and it is Seattle.


Power Ratings: NFL Week 10

It was another great week last week for top bets going 2-0-1 ATS. Unfortunately, the rest of the ratings did not do as well as Week 9 turned out to be just the second losing week of the season going 5-6-1 ATS overall. Once again heading into this week I am down on more teams in the league than I am up. Entering Week 10 I have downgraded 15 teams and upgraded just 9. A total of 8 teams remain at the same point they started the season.

What jumps out at me most from my ratings is the expected downswing they have projected for the AFC West. Personally speaking, I think the three of the four teams in the AFC West are among the most over rated teams in the league (Oakland, Denver, Kansas City). My ratings are now beginning to confirm the same thing, with all four teams projected between 8.5 and 9.5 wins. Considering that Oakland has 7, Kansas City and Denver have 6, these three teams are all projected to go on a downswing ahead. San Diego, who entered the season with a very high projection thanks in part to the Pythagorean Expectation, currently has 4, but I still have projected to win 8.5. While the rest of the world is focused on the top three teams in the division, my ratings would suggest to keep an eye on San Diego to make some noise.

To date, my power ratings are 63-52-5 (55%) ATS overall. Top bets (advantages of 3.5 points or more) are 24-12-1 (67%) ATS. This week there are two teams with advantages of more than a field goal, they are Baltimore and Minnesota.

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Power Ratings: NFL Week 9

It was a split week for my power ratings last week going 6-6 overall with top bets going 1-1. The trend in my ratings of being quick to downgrade teams has begun to even out. Last week I had downgraded 13 teams and upgraded 6. This week 3 more teams have cross the 0 threshold and become upgrades, while 2 more have gone the other-way and become downgrades. Just 8 teams remain at the same win expectancy as they did at the beginning of the season, the lowest of any week this season.

I have FIVE personal bets including two double bets set for Sunday

Click here to get each bet with a full write-up

To date, my power ratings are 58-46-4 ATS (56%) overall. Top bets (advantages of 3.5 points or more) are 22-12 ATS (65%). This week there are three advantages of more than a field goal, they are NY Giants, Dallas and Los Angeles.


Power Ratings: NFL Week 8

My power ratings come into the eighth week of the season off another winning week last week going 7-5 overall. More importantly, the best of the best stayed true to form with both top bets cashing in.

Click here to get all four of my personal wagers this weekend

A  trend is emerging within my ratings as I have downgraded 13 teams while upgrading just 6. This has long been a struggle of mine throughout my career as an oddsmaker, as it typically takes a lot from a team to impress me, while I am quick to downgrade. The reason for this is because I feel bettors are typically the opposite, as they are quick to upgrade a team and overreact to success but can brush off a bad string of games without thinking twice when rewarded.

At the beginning of the season I made the choice to include the Pythagorean Expectation into my win total ratings in attempt to account for some initial adjustment off the bat. It is somewhat reassuring to see many of the teams I have downgraded have been teams which came into the season with their win totals adjusted up, so I see this as more of a touch here or there to move them closer to their baseline rather than an overall negative approach.

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To date my power ratings are 52-40-4 ATS (57%) overall. Top bets (advantages of 3.5 or more) are 21-11 ATS (66%). This week there are two advantages of more than a field goal, they are Seattle and Dallas.