Way back at the beginning of the year on September 1st, I posted about a method using the highly efficient preseason win total markets to set a baseline for NFL Power Ratings. I wanted to experiment using the expected win total at the end of the season as the determining factor for moving power ratings. I thought if I could move the ratings week to week based on where a team would end up, rather than what they did the week prior, it would lead to more accurate movements and ratings throughout the league. This method prevented me from installing personal bias into the ratings and exceeded my greatest expectations.
After the regular season, here are how my Power Ratings record ended up:
Top Bets (advantages of 3 points or more) in 2016 went 39-24-1 for a winning percentage of 62% against the spread.
Ratings overall went 112-101-5 for a winning percentage of 53% against the spread.
While the sample size is still somewhat small, this method made me feel very confident on a week to week basis. This is certainly a method I will revisit for next season.
I appreciate all followers who visited my website on a week to week basis throughout the NFL season. I encourage all to continue to follow throughout the upcoming tennis season and get involved with my weekly tennis tournament wagers.
Happy New Year!