It was another great week last week for top bets going 2-0-1 ATS. Unfortunately, the rest of the ratings did not do as well as Week 9 turned out to be just the second losing week of the season going 5-6-1 ATS overall. Once again heading into this week I am down on more teams in the league than I am up. Entering Week 10 I have downgraded 15 teams and upgraded just 9. A total of 8 teams remain at the same point they started the season.
What jumps out at me most from my ratings is the expected downswing they have projected for the AFC West. Personally speaking, I think the three of the four teams in the AFC West are among the most over rated teams in the league (Oakland, Denver, Kansas City). My ratings are now beginning to confirm the same thing, with all four teams projected between 8.5 and 9.5 wins. Considering that Oakland has 7, Kansas City and Denver have 6, these three teams are all projected to go on a downswing ahead. San Diego, who entered the season with a very high projection thanks in part to the Pythagorean Expectation, currently has 4, but I still have projected to win 8.5. While the rest of the world is focused on the top three teams in the division, my ratings would suggest to keep an eye on San Diego to make some noise.
To date, my power ratings are 63-52-5 (55%) ATS overall. Top bets (advantages of 3.5 points or more) are 24-12-1 (67%) ATS. This week there are two teams with advantages of more than a field goal, they are Baltimore and Minnesota.