Power Ratings: NFL Week 8

My power ratings come into the eighth week of the season off another winning week last week going 7-5 overall. More importantly, the best of the best stayed true to form with both top bets cashing in.

Click here to get all four of my personal wagers this weekend

A  trend is emerging within my ratings as I have downgraded 13 teams while upgrading just 6. This has long been a struggle of mine throughout my career as an oddsmaker, as it typically takes a lot from a team to impress me, while I am quick to downgrade. The reason for this is because I feel bettors are typically the opposite, as they are quick to upgrade a team and overreact to success but can brush off a bad string of games without thinking twice when rewarded.

At the beginning of the season I made the choice to include the Pythagorean Expectation into my win total ratings in attempt to account for some initial adjustment off the bat. It is somewhat reassuring to see many of the teams I have downgraded have been teams which came into the season with their win totals adjusted up, so I see this as more of a touch here or there to move them closer to their baseline rather than an overall negative approach.

Power Ratings Week 8.png

To date my power ratings are 52-40-4 ATS (57%) overall. Top bets (advantages of 3.5 or more) are 21-11 ATS (66%). This week there are two advantages of more than a field goal, they are Seattle and Dallas.

 

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Author: Adam Chernoff

Adam went from small town Saskatchewan to being an Oddsmaker in Medellin, Colombia. On his blog, adamchernoff.com you can read stories about his wild decade of gambling.

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