Power Ratings: NFL Week 5

I wanted to address something before this weeks posting of my power ratings.

This is my first year doing these ratings, following the outline I set in place in the opening week of the season. This is something that is new to me as it is to all of you. Along the way there have definitely been errors made on my part. These errors were certainly not intentional, and happened due to time constraints and mainly an overall learning curve to the process. Displaying the information in an efficient manner to get the point across, along with answering questions each day can cause a mind to make poor decisions. I have been tinkering each week to make the ratings easier to use and decipher for all bettors, and this has added to the confusion. After receiving a few emails from readers, I have made what I feel to be the easiest, and best way to display this information, and manage from my end. This is a format I want to stick to moving forward as I believe it illustrates the idea of having a set starting and managing the ending point for each team, and generating weekly point spreads along the way.

Here are my power ratings for Week 5:

Power Ratings Week5.png

As readers can see, I have each team displayed down the left with their preseason expected wins total which combined the market win total and Pythagorean expectation. I have adjustments which I have made to each team in the past 4 weeks displayed in the third column. The fourth column is the current expected win total for the end of the year. Next I have home field advantage along with the power ratings spread. The power ratings spread is determined using the end of the season expected win total and not the pre-season win total. The difference from current spread is the advantage generated from the ratings. This figure is the sum of the home field advantage and current ratings spread minus the current market spread.

To date my Power Ratings are 30-26-2 ATS overall. Advantages of more than a field goal (3 points) are 14-8 ATS. This week there are four advantages of a field goal or more, they are, Detroit, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Dallas.



Author: Adam Chernoff

Adam went from small town Saskatchewan to being an Oddsmaker in Medellin, Colombia. On his blog, adamchernoff.com you can read stories about his wild decade of gambling.

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