Last week I talked about not getting overwhelmed with information as the season moves further away from the beginning and closer to the middle. This week, there is not a big lesson to be taught as many principals from last week still apply. The only advice that can be passed along is remembering to stay in lane. The shore that was the beginning of the season is gone, and maintaining pace and staying true to mechanics is the key to continuing on as things head towards the midway point.
Last week, the power ratings had their first losing week of the season, going 7-9 ATS. When creating the ratings, the temptation was definitely there to attempt to skew ratings in order to warrant bigger bets and make up for the losing week. As I was going down my spread sheet creating my ratings for this week, I had top stop myself from keeping one eye on the end column as I was doing my adjustments just to see how big the bet would be. This is natural and comes with gambling, but it important to fall back on the basics and stick with the mechanics that have led to successful results in the past.
I made adjustments for the JJ Watt injury. His consensus value to the point spread was between 1 and 1.5 points, which spread out over the course of the season equates to 1 win. I had them neutral coming in, and have since adjusted them -1.
I have adjusted the Bears down a win after another horrific performance in prime time. I still think that other ratings and the general perception are too low on them as they have skill players in the right positions, and Hoyer is much better than the average backup. This difference in opinion shows as they are among the biggest differences this week.
I have bumped the Pats up a win on the season, although I think that would be considered low if compared to other ratings. I actually believe they are in for somewhat of a let down with Brady coming into the picture next week. Guys on this team have stepped up in all positions to account for his suspension and then injury to Garoppolo. With Brady back in, we may see guys take it for granted and the level of play on the Pats dip slightly and performance ATS lack what is has been.
Minor adjustments down on New Orleans due to their defence, San Diego due to their injuries and Jacksonville to poor performances. Minor adjustment up on Atlanta due to their strong start offensively. Other than that all teams remain level with where they were entering the season.
The overall record of my ratings entering Week 4 is 25-19-2 ATS. Advantages of more than 3 points are 10-5 ATS. This week there are 7 teams with advantages greater than 3 points. They are, Atlanta, Chicago, Seattle, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Dallas and NY Giants. Other advantages this week include, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Tennessee, Cleveland and Pittsburgh for a total of 12 bets.